Independent analysis · 2026
What ₹5 crore can and cannot buy
What coverage a ₹5 crore grant can buy under conservative, base and upside assumptions.
- Where
- Independent technical work
- Role
- Independent analyst
- Period
- 2026
- Methods
- Excel programme model · sensitivity
- Output
- Auditable Excel cost and coverage workbook: seven sheets, three scenarios, ±30% sensitivity.
The underlying programme is assisted welfare access for informal migrants in three Mumbai wards: the strategy described in On the lists, not at the counter. This page is the workbook.
Author estimates for an independent strategy model. Workbook: Inputs, Assumptions, Population, Coverage, Cost, Scenarios, Sensitivity. See artefacts.
| Sheet | What it holds |
|---|---|
| Inputs | Grant ₹5 cr, 24 months, 3 wards, 10% M&E. |
| Assumptions | Unit cost, conversion from reach to receipt, staff load. |
| Population | Informal workers under ₹15,000/month, majority interstate: planning totals, author estimates. |
| Coverage | Eligible → reachable → enrolled → successful receipt. |
| Cost | Fixed (tech, M&E, partnership) and variable (desk, casework). |
| Scenarios | Conservative, base, upside. |
| Sensitivity | Unit cost and conversion each moved ±30%. |
If conversion from reach to receipt falls 30% in the base case, successful benefits drop from 25,000 to 17,500 and unit cost rises from ₹2,000 to about ₹2,860. If unit cost itself rises 30%, the 25,000 target is not credible at ₹5 crore. Those are the two switches to watch in months 0–3.
Independent analysis. Author estimates. CSV is auditable line by line.